Oct 22, 2025
Each week of a federal government shutdown is estimated to trim 0.1% from this quarter’s annualized GDP growth, according to Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. The White House projects that a month-long closure could result in roughly 43,000 job losses.
Real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025 (April–June), according to the BEA’s third estimate. The technology sector continues to drive growth, offsetting weakness in housing and manufacturing. A brief shutdown would not trigger a nationwide recession, but prolonged disruption poses risks.
Housing market weakens: Construction starts remain historically low. Existing-home sales have declined steadily since February, and median prices fell from $432,000 to $422,000 in August. In contrast, new-home sales and prices rose slightly in August compared to July. While lower rates and softer prices could offer marginal relief to buyers, they will not significantly ease the structural housing shortage.
Labor market slows: Despite solid headline GDP and elevated equity markets fueled by massive A.I.-driven investment, hiring momentum has weakened. The unemployment rate remains low, but job seekers face increasing challenges.
Inflation and policy outlook: Headline and core CPI are projected to rise 0.3% in September, keeping year-over-year inflation near 3%. Rents and owners’ equivalent rents are expected to post similar monthly gains. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, suggesting continued policy pressure amid persistent tariff and labor cost dynamics.
Propbee Economics Team
Oct 22, 2025
Each week of a federal government shutdown is estimated to trim 0.1% from this quarter’s annualized GDP growth, according to Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. The White House projects that a month-long closure could result in roughly 43,000 job losses.
Real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025 (April–June), according to the BEA’s third estimate. The technology sector continues to drive growth, offsetting weakness in housing and manufacturing. A brief shutdown would not trigger a nationwide recession, but prolonged disruption poses risks.
Housing market weakens: Construction starts remain historically low. Existing-home sales have declined steadily since February, and median prices fell from $432,000 to $422,000 in August. In contrast, new-home sales and prices rose slightly in August compared to July. While lower rates and softer prices could offer marginal relief to buyers, they will not significantly ease the structural housing shortage.
Labor market slows: Despite solid headline GDP and elevated equity markets fueled by massive A.I.-driven investment, hiring momentum has weakened. The unemployment rate remains low, but job seekers face increasing challenges.
Inflation and policy outlook: Headline and core CPI are projected to rise 0.3% in September, keeping year-over-year inflation near 3%. Rents and owners’ equivalent rents are expected to post similar monthly gains. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, suggesting continued policy pressure amid persistent tariff and labor cost dynamics.
Propbee Economics Team
